ABSTRACT
The study examined time series analysis on marriage registration in Ilorin, Kwara State between (2000 – 2011). The data used was collected from marriage registry, ministry of social welfare, Ilorin, Kwara State. Moving average, simple linear regression was used for the analysis. The result on trend value clearly show that, there is a steady decrease in the number of marriage from second half of the year 2002 up to January 2003, and from there, there was a shape increase in the number of marriage. Also trend of marriage contains seasonal variation, which have been smoothing by moving average method. Thus, the trend value appears to follow almost identical patterns during the corresponding month of the successive years. This indicated that Christmas and New Year festivals have influence on marriage as it can be seen on the trend values.
TABLE OF CONTENT
Title page i
Certification ii
Dedication iii
Acknowledgement iv
Abstract v
Table of content vi
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 Introduction 1-2
1.1 Types of marriage 2-4
1.2 Historical background of marriage registry 5-6
1.3 Statement of problems 7
1.4 aim and objectives of the study 8
1.5 Significant of the study 8
1.6 Scope and limitation of the study 8-9
1.7 Problems encountered 9
CHAPTER TWO
2.0 Literature review 10
2.1 Introduction: 10-16
CHAPTER THREE
Methodology and data presentation 17
3.0 Introduction 17
3.1 Sources of data 17-18
3.2 Presentation of data 18-19
3.4 method of analysis 24
3.4.1 Time series analysis 24
3.4.2 Components of time series 25
3.5 Model used in the analysis 25
3.6 Methods of estimating trend 26
CHARTER FOUR
Analysis of data 27
4.0 Introduction 27
4.1 Moving average 27-33
4.2 Computation of seasonal index using percentage
moving average for marriage registration 34-38
CHAPTER FIVE
Summary of findings, conclusion and Recommendations 51
5.0 Summary of findings 51-52
5.1 Conclusion 52-53
5.2 Recommendations 53
References 54
