THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATION ON THE NIGERIA ECONOMIC GROWTH (1999 – 2013)
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ABSTRACT
This research work is centred on the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on the Nigeria’s economic growth with special emphasis on purchasing power of the average Nigeria and the level of international trade transaction. Without exchange rate the exchange of goods and services among trading partners will be faced with a lot of problems, which may virtually narrow it down to trade by barter. This exchange also is used to determine the level of output growth of the country. Hence, the rate at which exchange fluctuates calls for a lot of attention. However, with already existing exchange rate policies, a constant exchange rate has not been attained. The rate by which exchange rate fluctuates brings about uncertainty in the trade transaction, and also the rate of naira has been unleashed and continues to depreciate. This has resulted to declines in standard of living of the population increase in costs of production (this is because most of the raw materials needed by industries are usually imported), which resulted in cost-push inflation. We made use of many tests, like the t-statistics table, f-statistic table and the chi-square etc. When we found out real exchange rate has a positive effect on the GDP.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title Page - - - - - - - - - - -i
Approval page - - - - - - - - - -ii
Dedication - - - -- - - - - - -iii
Acknowledgement - - - - - - - - -iv
Abstract - - - - - - - - - - -vi
Table of content - - - - - - - - -vii
1.0 Chapter one: Introduction
1.1 Background of the study - - - - - - -1
1.2 Statement of the problem - - - - - - -5
1.3 Objective of the study - - - - - - -6
1.4 Formulation of the research hypothesis - - - - -8
1.5 Significance of the study - - - - - - -8
1.6 Limitations of the study - - - - - -9
1.7 Scope of the study - - - -- - - - -10
This research work is centred on the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on the Nigeria’s economic growth with special emphasis on purchasing power of the average Nigeria and the level of international trade transaction. Without exchange rate the exchange of goods and services among trading partners will be faced with a lot of problems, which may virtually narrow it down to trade by barter. This exchange also is used to determine the level of output growth of the country. Hence, the rate at which exchange fluctuates calls for a lot of attention. However, with already existing exchange rate policies, a constant exchange rate has not been attained. The rate by which exchange rate fluctuates brings about uncertainty in the trade transaction, and also the rate of naira has been unleashed and continues to depreciate. This has resulted to declines in standard of living of the population increase in costs of production (this is because most of the raw materials needed by industries are usually imported), which resulted in cost-push inflation. We made use of many tests, like the t-statistics table, f-statistic table and the chi-square etc. When we found out real exchange rate has a positive effect on the GDP.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title Page - - - - - - - - - - -i
Approval page - - - - - - - - - -ii
Dedication - - - -- - - - - - -iii
Acknowledgement - - - - - - - - -iv
Abstract - - - - - - - - - - -vi
Table of content - - - - - - - - -vii
1.0 Chapter one: Introduction
1.1 Background of the study - - - - - - -1
1.2 Statement of the problem - - - - - - -5
1.3 Objective of the study - - - - - - -6
1.4 Formulation of the research hypothesis - - - - -8
1.5 Significance of the study - - - - - - -8
1.6 Limitations of the study - - - - - -9
1.7 Scope of the study - - - -- - - - -10
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 The Purchasing Power Parity theory - - - - -11
2.2 Theoretical issues - - - - - - - -14
2.3 The traditional flow model - - - - - - -17
2.4 The elasticity approach - - - - - - -18
2.5 The monetary approach - - - - - - -21
2.6 The portfolio balance model - - - - - -24
2.7 Empirical literature - - - - - - - -30
2.8 Limitations of the previous studies - - - - - -43
2.9 Definition of the terms - - - - - - -46
2.1 The Purchasing Power Parity theory - - - - -11
2.2 Theoretical issues - - - - - - - -14
2.3 The traditional flow model - - - - - - -17
2.4 The elasticity approach - - - - - - -18
2.5 The monetary approach - - - - - - -21
2.6 The portfolio balance model - - - - - -24
2.7 Empirical literature - - - - - - - -30
2.8 Limitations of the previous studies - - - - - -43
2.9 Definition of the terms - - - - - - -46
CHAPTER THREE: Research Methodology
3.1 Theoretical framework -- - - - - - - -50
3.2 Model specification - - - - - - - -51
3.3 Method of evaluation - - - - - - -54
3.4 Estimation procedure - - - - - - - -56
3.4.1 Economic A Priori test- - - - - - - -57
3.4.2 Statistical test (first-order) - - - - - -58
3.4.3 Econometric (second order) test - - - - -60
3.5 Nature and sources of data - - - - - - -62
3.1 Theoretical framework -- - - - - - - -50
3.2 Model specification - - - - - - - -51
3.3 Method of evaluation - - - - - - -54
3.4 Estimation procedure - - - - - - - -56
3.4.1 Economic A Priori test- - - - - - - -57
3.4.2 Statistical test (first-order) - - - - - -58
3.4.3 Econometric (second order) test - - - - -60
3.5 Nature and sources of data - - - - - - -62
CHAPTER FOUR: Presentation And Analysis Of Result
4.1 Presentation and interpretation of result - - - -63
4.2 Economic a priori criteria - - - - - - - -64
4.3 Statistical criteria (first-order test) - - - - - -66
4.3.1 Coefficient of multiple determination (R2) - - - -66
4.3.2 The student’s T-test - - - - - - - -67
4.3.3 F-statistics - - - - - - - - - -69
4.4 Econometrics criteria - - - - - - - -71
4.4.1 Test for Auto-correlation - - - - - - -71
4.4.2 Normality test for Residual - - - - - -73
4.4.3 Test for heteroscedasticity - - - - - -74
4.4.4 Test for multicollinearity - - - - - - -77
5.0 CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS,
4.1 Presentation and interpretation of result - - - -63
4.2 Economic a priori criteria - - - - - - - -64
4.3 Statistical criteria (first-order test) - - - - - -66
4.3.1 Coefficient of multiple determination (R2) - - - -66
4.3.2 The student’s T-test - - - - - - - -67
4.3.3 F-statistics - - - - - - - - - -69
4.4 Econometrics criteria - - - - - - - -71
4.4.1 Test for Auto-correlation - - - - - - -71
4.4.2 Normality test for Residual - - - - - -73
4.4.3 Test for heteroscedasticity - - - - - -74
4.4.4 Test for multicollinearity - - - - - - -77
5.0 CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS,
CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Summary of Findings -- - - - - - - 79
5.2 Conclusions - - - - - - - - -80
5.3 Policy Recommendation - - - - - - -81
5.4 Bibliography - - - - - - - - -84
THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATION ON THE NIGERIA ECONOMIC GROWTH (1999 – 2013)5.1 Summary of Findings -- - - - - - - 79
5.2 Conclusions - - - - - - - - -80
5.3 Policy Recommendation - - - - - - -81
5.4 Bibliography - - - - - - - - -84
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